The Big Picture for the Week of January 23, 2005

All of the reading and watching I have done this weekend has a gloomy bias to it. The market has had a remarkably dour run to start the year. Is it oversold yet? I think it has to be close to oversold. These types of bad runs seem to always turn positive for the same reason. That reason is nothing. No catalyst. The market just starts to rally for no tangible reason and then after the fact we will hear people like Vince Farrell come on TV and tell us they were buying at the darkest hour. When you here people say that you should be skeptical because they are always buying and selling something, but the better questions would be did they make major changes and if so when?

I think I have been fairly transparent with any changes I make and if you have read this site for a while you know I get some right and get some wrong. Success comes from being right more often.

The biggest story for me this week was the implosion of eBAY's stock. I don't own that one but I do own one of the other net biggies. Fortunately that one has held up ok. The market still seems to not want to reward risk taking which conflicts historically with a flatter yield curve. So either something is different this time or riskier stocks will have a nice snap back (although perhaps ex-eBay?, but I sure wouldn't want to short it either).

There are plenty of things that investors are afraid of that can hold the market back. Isn't that when markets usually go up? I have written and said there really is not much that can move the market right now. Doesn't this sound like a wall of worry to anyone else?

Oh well, for now no changes. I let you know when I do make changes.

I am from the Boston area so I will be glued to the action when the Patriots play the Steelers. Fortunately for me the game will no conflict with the first half hour of Asian Squawk Box, which on Sundays is one of the most important half hours on TV during the week. And one of the least important half hours? Hopefully not the first half hour of Asian Market Watch on Monday night because I will be on giving commentary about the US markets.