The Big Picture For The Week of September 4, 2005

We have a few things to cover this weekend.

We had a down August, although only down a little. In the last 20 years there have only been six times where the S+P 500 was down in both August and September. Short term, I continue to be hopeful for a nice run up. The market weathered Katrina (and the oil shock) well, for the first week anyway. I have to think that some of the Katrina reaction in various markets will unwind. If so that means cheaper oil (I'm talking low $60's) and treasury yields moving up from panic levels. If the ten year yield goes from 4.01% for 4.20% we would probably see some of that bond money rotate into equities. Again, I am thinking this is a 2-4 month story.

I don't want to turn this into a political or sociological debate, but I am having trouble reconciling the totality of the humanitarian effort to the hurricane victims.

Thanks for all the mostly kind words for the Real Money announcement. One of the reasons I am so committed to writing about this stuff is to try to help people with their investing. To whatever extent I do that on this site, writing for Real Money means my style of content is now easily found by many more people. I really am thrilled about the whole thing.