- The S+P 500 is up 5% or so for the year. The year end will be crucial for a lot of folks. A slight decline could hurt a lot bonuses, point being the action is likely to be very nervous. A hint of a move down could cause an over reaction leading to overselling of the US market.
- That being said the market does seem to be in a good mood. Despite nervous trade I think another 1%-2% has a decent chance of happening.
- Looking into first quarter it is generally accepted that earnings growth will begin to slowdown. Bulls expect multiple expansion and bears say slower earnings growth will mean lower stock prices. While I doubt we will see multiples expand I think it is clear that we will see whether slower earnings growth does or does not matter starting in January.
- Market participants' fear and greed seems most evident in the action in Sandisk. It has been a while since we have had a stock this important move so much on so little news. Fear and greed.
- Gold sold off nicely in the last few days. In my last appearance I was asked about gold and I was skeptical about entering a position for a trade. Clearly down here is a much safer entry point. In terms of a short term trade this might be a good entry point.
- The market did not have as big of a rection to the Fed language as some expected. We may be on the verge of a period of less concern about the Fed. We know they are not going to 5.25% and we know they will go to at least 4.50%. I take this to mean the Fed is now less important.
Thursday, December 15, 2005
I will be on CNBC Asia tonight in my usual interview at 8:10 pm tonight. Here's what might come up.
Posted by Roger Nusbaum at 4:22 PM