Die hard 1980's pop culture fans might recognize that title from the movie Stripes.
I of kind feel like we are experiencing part of that scene with regard to the parade of people coming on TV saying they have been underweight Japan for x number of months. For months on end we had nothing but a parade of Japan bulls. Now today everyone is a bear?
The biggest bull I can recall is David Malpass from Bear Stearns. He was very right for a long time about Japan. I didn’t see him on anywhere to talk about it after this last bit of news (anyone feel free to correct me). Chances are he has his finger on the pulse of whatever is going on.
If I had been on TV anywhere today I would say we don’t have exposure. Someone would have said "really, why not?" The truth would have been I was too dumb to see the rally coming because I never bought into the fundamentals behind the rally. Long term readers know this already.
Now is the time for the bulls to speak up. If I publicly got investors to buy into Japan at Nikkei 11000 and then took them back out 6% or 7% from the top I think I could never have to be right about anything again.
I’m speaking in hyperbole, but if now is the time to sell and you captured a big chunk of the lift you made a fantastic trade.
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2 comments:
I agree that the rally seemed to be an exaggeration to economic and political events in Japan. That being said, I did stake out a position in MTU about nine months ago, with no regrets. It appears to me it will be a profitable long term holding, so long as they allow their recent hires to squeeze more profits from immense and still-growing Japanese and international business operations.
As for the rest of the market, no thanks for now, although with the latest "crash", astute short term buyers will invest immediately in quality issues that were oversold en masse.
"..and you'll say I've been listening to him for years and think he's fabulous."
"You can't go all the plants will die."
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