Why is this news?
We are bumping up on the normal duration of an economic expansion. While a recession may or may not be visible in the current fundamentals, it makes sense to think about just based on how economic cycles usually work.
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2 comments:
Roger,
Excellent blog. Enjoy reading it very much. I am curious to find out what you think about an article like this
http://www.billcara.com/archives/moneyization%20%2320%20by%20Ned%20Schmidt.pdf
Basically, the article talks about the problems about the deficits and the possible dollar crisis. How do you position a clients portfolio to deal with something like this? The magnitude of a fallout from foreigners dumping the dollar could be enormous, and I am wondering if having assets in precious metals(Gold / Silver) is the only way to deal with this. Under what circumstances would the foreigners stop buying our debt? Don't see any other alternate out there where they could park their money? If the dollar falls rapidly, raising the prices of our imports, thereby dampening demand for foreign goods, wouldn't China being export driven, would also be hurt? I guess wrong place for a comment to ask so many questions, but would really appreciate to hear your thoughts on the above.
Regards
Rajiv Hargunani
To Rajiv,
The link took me to a page that said the file was gone. So focusing on what you have on my comment page; I have access to many things that should do well (relattively) if the dollar falls a lot, regardless of the cause of the fall.
The list includes gold, an emerging market currency fund, stocks from Australia, Canada, Norway, South Africa, Brazil and China.
You can find a lot more detail in the archives of this site.
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