Another milestone for me is being misquoted in the above article in IBD. A chap named Edward Denson has written a short white paper for UBS titled Should Passive Commodities "Investments" Play A Role In Your Portfolio and his conclusion is no.
The above article says I generally agree which I don't. The writer emailed me the report so I don't have a link to give. In the interview I described the white paper as being incomplete because there was no mention of changes in demand and the reasons cited by Dr, Denson, I felt, had more to do with logistics of commodity exposure like futures roll than with flaws in the theme.
His conclusion could be right for all I know but how can you draw any conclusion without touching on demand?
He did say that commodities don't provide much hedge against inflation and that the price moves are a non-start and offered this chart.
I realize his chart is difficult to see but it looks like there is more room for upside based on how these moves have worked before.
My primary interests in commodity exposure are the low correlation to equities and the ability to rally in the face of equity market crisis. These attributes serve to reduce portfolio volatility.
On a different note, the silver ETF has started to trade today and seems to be off to a good start.
I still have a lot to learn about silver. What I know leads me to conclude the fundamentals are more complex than with gold.
As this chart shows buyers today are not buying low.
1 comments:
Hi Roger,
Regarding silver: I've learned a lot about silver and its fundamentals by listening to David Morgan's weekly metals reports on the Financial Sense Newshour and by reading his articles, which you can find at financialsense.com.
His article archive also contains a link to his website, the Silver Investor. You might find some useful info there. No relationship with Mr. Morgan, just wanted to say I've learned something fom him. Best,
David.
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