Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
6 comments:
RR,
i had two questions based on what you said, you mentioned buying a short term tresuary at 5%+/- and i am wondering if i would be taking on added exposure and not better off just dumping cash in a money market account that has a comparable return. i've read a couple of places that the possibility of a rate cut is already built in to the bond market so even in the even it happens i wouldnt have much upside potential. is there a different way i should be looking at it?
also you mentioned consumer stocks right after you mentioned being patient. my question is related to both of them. i am wondering if you think the consumer is getting tired. i know old addage is dont bet against the consumer but at some point they have to tire / run out of funding. are you long on consumer stocks or do you think that there might be a correction in say the next year. or is a moot point because of the patience you addressed earlier?
thanks!
Models this week:
Timing Model = 1.5
70% long, 30% cash
Allocation of Long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 30%
Russell 3000 Index - U.S. 40%
Top U.S Sectors
U.S. Telecommunications 7.0
U.S. Real Estate 5.5
U.S. Consumer Services 5.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 4.0
U.S. Basic Materials 4.0
U.S. Financials 4.0
U.S. Banks 3.5
Top Intl ETFs
MSCI Spain Index Fund 3
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 3
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 3
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 3
MSCI Malaysia Index Fund 3
MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund 3
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 3
S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund 2
MSCI Brazil Index Fund 2
Top Regions/Styles/Asset Classes
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index 4.0
MSCI Hong Kong Index 4.0
MSCI Pacific Free ex-Japan Index 4.0
Dow Jones Wilshire REIT index 3.0
DJ Precious Metals-inverse 2.0
Silver 100% 2.0
MSCI European Monetary Union Index 1.0
S&P Latin America 40 Index 1.0
S&P Europe 350 Index 1.0
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 1.0
DJ U.S. Oil & Gas-inverse 1.0
My timing model ticked up again this week to 1.5. This occured because Jason Goefert's Advisor-Investor Model climbed back into OB territory. That might sound a little strange, but as I've mentioned previously, sentiment gauges are actually more bearish when they are falling from OB levels.
I give myself a tad of subjective descretion to vary from my timing model's recommended long/short allocations. Normally a 1.5 score would equal 80% long, but I'm going to stick with 70% this week.
Hi Roger:
Can you please tell us what is a trust?
What is a REIT?
I looked at VNQ and it has gone by by about 7% since Jan 1, 2007. What is driving the share price to such an extent.
When I looked at its PE ratio - it is very high - more than 45.
Is it common for REITs to have high PE when compared to other industries or country ETFs.
Thanks for educating me.
Michael,
you could go money market but i like the idea of knowing i will get 5% or so for a year with a treasury or agency paper. If the fed cuts short yields will go down and I expect when that happens longer term yeilds could go up, I am just describing a normalization of the curve. longer rates going up could turn out to be wrong of course.
i am less concerned about the consumer that the market's perception of the consumer which is different. later cycle, where we are now is usually not great for discretionary stocks.
Roger Nusbaum
Hey Roger,
Your BigPicture for the week is a must watch for me and I appreciate your long term approach/perspective. I am sitting on some cash in my portfolio (not a big bet) and I have been looking for yield. One product I came accross was a 8.5% Morgan Stanley SPARQS for a stock on my watch list. This stock has been beaten down, but rather than buy it outright, I would not mind having the yeld for 3 qtrs and see what the market does. My question is two-fold: 1) Who buys these notes when they are issued? 2) I know if the stock appreciates they are callable, but is there some other gottcha? Is this a product for the average investor?
Many thanks for all you do!
Lisa
Lisa,
structured products are very complex. There is always more than meets the eye. For starters like CEFs they have an NAV and the market price can be more or less than the NAV.
I own one personally, CAQ, that I bought at a discount long after it had been listed. New issues have an embedded sales charge.
I do not use them for clients, I can't explain them well enough.
I am hardpressed to say go ahead to anyone, there really are a lot of moving parts.
Post a Comment