The combination of my being a wildland firefighter and living in the woods means I am unlikely to go too long without having a tree encounter of some sort. On Saturday we discovered that an old oak tree on our property that has been dead for a long time was probably rotting from within.
A friend came over Sunday morning with his chainsaw. He cut it down for us (he made the cuts while Joellyn and I pushed it where we hoped it would go) and then I cut it into rounds that I will split into firewood at some point before it gets cold again (it wasn't that rotted so it will burn well).
The way the tree fell, not quite where we wanted, it landed right on the edge of our glory whole, well its not quite a glory hole but its close. The ground was not real solid under my feet, I had to make some cuts with the chain saw held a little higher than what's comfortable, at one point part of the tree rolled into the glory whole before I wanted it to and combine all that with the normal difficulty of cutting up a tree like the saw is heavy, sometimes a chain saw kicks up for no reason and no matter what, trees, fallen or otherwise, do not yield for you.
The nastiest medical call I have ever been on involved a round rolling down a hill into a guy.
And while whole thing took less than an hour I would have rather been watching the college lacrosse tournament on ESPNU but the work had to be done.
I think the entire episode translates into investing. Sometimes the ground under the market's feet is not solid, sometimes you need to allocate capital when prices are higher than what is comfortable, sometimes a stock takes a roll into the glory hole before you want it to, sometimes the market kicks up for no reason at all and no matter what the stock market does not yield for you.
But the work has to be done.
Logging without getting hurt, like investing without getting hurt, is a matter of assessing risks before they become a problem. If I had been standing in the wrong spot when the bottom portion started rolling into the hole I would have been in real trouble so I made sure I stood in the right spot. Limbs on trees in this situation can be very dangerous so before each cut I made sure that there were no limbs that could stab into me.
In your portfolio you are vulnerable to certain things, risk assessment means making sure you are not too vulnerable. The market is always vulnerable to certain things, risk assessment means studying what the market is vulnerable to.
This is simply work we must do.
On an unrelated note The Sopranos is starting to wind down and while I won't giveaway last night's episode in case you haven't seen it, the dominoes are starting to fall, wow.
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19 comments:
No rate cut:
"May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's inflation concerns have prompted investors to make a record bet against $88.8 billion of two-year Treasuries.
That's the amount of futures contracts on notes traders have sold at the Chicago Board of Trade, the most since the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission began keeping track of the data in 1993. It exceeds wagers to profit from rising prices by $51.8 billion, the largest so-called net short position ever, according to CFTC data released May 11.
Speculation on a decline in the short-term Treasury notes has more than doubled in the past two months as the economy weathers the worst housing slump in a decade and Fed officials signal they have no intention of cutting their target rate for overnight loans between banks anytime soon. Two-year notes are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than longer-term debt. ..."
Speaking of rotting from within:
http://www.zealllc.com/2007/usdbear5.htm
The end of US Dollar hegemony.
Roger - from one full time portfolio manager with a part time job as a woodsman to another:
1. Three people on one tree while its being cut is extremely dangerous! If the saw kicks, or falls the wrong way you are going to have three people running into each other. Use the old rope pull method from a safe distance.
2. Oak cuts best when its frozen.
3. When the investment tree isn't falling into the right spot its improtant to be nimble enough to adjust before it lands.
Thanks for all of your thoughtful blogs and posts!
saying I'm a woodsman may be a stretch, that I know a little about how to use a chain saw might be a little closer.
I will say that the way we were positioned a serious kick back would not have come to us--this explains why the tree did not land exactly where we wanted.
thank you for the comment about it.
my wife and I have followed the sopranos since day 1. Last week, we had enough. David Chase has a theme, I think, that finally took the interest out of it for us. tony et al are monsters. why go to bed with that stuff in your head. even turtle and his crew can't cleanse it. Tony is like us...he wants to maximize profits. The difference is that he gets to make up the rules and that he can rationalize consequences to others. "It's just my nature." Tony will joyfully bleed another's blood and money for his benefit. Tony and white collar criminals on wallst have a lot in common...and the numbers of them are staggering. As long as they can get away with it, they will do whatever they can to put me and you in the house of pain, and they will enjoy it. Jim Crammer has been to the darkside. Given the skill and the opportunity we would all be tempted. My solution is that the government fight fire with fire. Connive to tax excess, back date where helpful, and cut taxes for joe average. How about that....a metaphor with wildfires, soprano's, and our money.
Roger:
Love the blog.
As a fellow Bostonian-turned-Arizonan, I am curious where you did your wildland fire training (and what you'd advise for someone who wants to start). We've got a cabin up in Christopher Creek and I want to be able to help in whatever capacity I can.
As far as trees go, I almost felled a big ole pine on the cabin last year...my wife isn't quite strong enough to be of much use on the end of a rope. Luckily, I was able to use a ratchet-style tiedown to get the saw unbound and finish the job.
No, she hasn't let me forget it.
jakep
Every March the Arizona Wildfire Academy has classes in Prescott at Embry Riddle. You can click here for info. Registration is usually in December for the following March.
The class you would need to take is S130/190 aka Basic. It five days including an overnight. It is possible to take the class elsewhere during the year but I am not sure where.
A lot of guys come over from your neck of the woods in March, it really is a big deal.
Hope that helps.
My husband's childhood friend (they are in their early 50's now!)was seriously injured--to the point of almost losing his life--in cutting a tree down. It was a rotten tree, and somehow it did a snapback and the top broke out and fell and hit our friend. He had a serious head injury (which was not permanent, though that was the fear)and a broken neck, back, sternum and I think pelvis (and all of the internal injuries that go with that). He has a long road ahead in his physical rehabilitation. Felling any tree (we've done many on our property) is risky--but when they are rotten there are potentially more moving parts than you bargain for.
Tony and Company.....We watched from day 1 and then stopped. They had such a hard time getting the series on a regular schedule we said heck with it and stopped the premium service. Well, we have it back now. Yes, the story is moving to some sort of bizarre crescendo. Of course, I'm not sure how they can top Ralphie's, Pussy's or even last night's whack (I'm being good by being vague!). You have to wonder that whatever the ending, will it leave folks asking, "Do you think they'll have another season?" We'll see soon enough.
Leisa,
We do have ample respect for anything to do with big trees and fast moving metal. The tree was probably 18" in diameter with about 3" rotted in the middle.
I would be thrilled to see another season of Sopranos but i doubt it.
Would have thought Leisa would have had some comments at the bell this AM after having her own bell rung yesterday by a lg saute pan.
I was buying some of the gold mining juniors who got "panned" today and almost did another QID layer.
Cautious Leisa, the jungle drums say, was in the top 3% of trading in the game at cnbc. Not too shabby.
Jason Goefert posted a harrowing "everyday life" story on his website today. He and his brother were charged by a large black bear over the weekend. The "make yourself big" advice apparently works (the bear stopped at 15 yards and turned tail).
crazy story, feel free to leave a link.
David B...My noggin is still tender from that saute pan beaning me. My best on the CNBC was like 18K or so before I sank back to my final finish of 40K-something.
What's really sad is that no one sees the virtue in launching a 40-something or 50-something show. With Tony and Company leaving perhaps HBO can do a show starring a hedge fund manager! Roger, they may be calling you! The language is probably as bad, though one would hope that the body count would be 0.
One might also take note that "24" is down to two episodes starting tonight. Can anyone say 'Sweeps Week'?
Also for Dave B...speaking of the end of US dollar hegemony, have you ever seen this article?:
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2006/cr021506.htm
Here is another more readable link to that article:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul303.html
HBO might be calling. I believe a show about a guy on the couch, in his pajamas cradling the laptop would have a lot of traction. lol
The Ron Paul speech was a nice summary of some of the tactics of the stealth ruling class.
Rather than invading and taking their oil for our own (DB for Pres.), forcing them to accept worthless certificates we print instead is of course "acceptable".
ECB holding down the price of Gold. They even got Warren Buffet to say in public the subprime mess won't spread. Wonder what photos they have...
Somebody ran the stops in the Gold miners today, or some hedge fund has blown up and liquidated. I also have a sneaking suspicion that FNM has blown up and the Fed is proping them up. A GSE failure would be sufficient to ruin the ruling class' day. I would be buying the popcorn fairly soon, as the show will keep us glued to the LCDs. And please don't all flush at the same moment during the middle of the "W bottom" sell off.
Glory hole? I wouldn't touch that one with a ten foot pole..:)
lol, thats why i put the wikipedia link. it really is a type of mine.
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