Wikinvest Wire

Saturday, December 08, 2007

The Big Picture For The Week Of December 9, 2007

11 comments:

Bill B said...

Roger,
Thanks for giving us little fish the recap. Pathetically enough, it sounds like I would've been riveted by this conference. This is exactly where I'm at. Being in "control" of my portfolio. Not referring to the buying and selling but tweaking things to my personal preferences and tolerances. In other words, if the market goes down 1000 points, what should I expect with my current holdings. What is my maximum drawdown and can I live with it. What is the probability that I'll suffer my maximum drawdown.

This is why I have so much interest in options, namely spreads. It gives me a lot of control and absolute defined risk. As you mentioned it was discussed when to use them and when not to use them. As with anything, I don't believe there is a cut and dried answer. It's up to the individual. I still would've enjoyed hearing what the big boys were thinking on this.

JackS said...

Thanks Roger for the synopsis on your visit to the Super Bowl of Indexing. I also like and use a similar 80/20 approach in my portfolio. (I have them in separate two accounts)

It's too bad though that your conference was going on at the same time that the Super Bowl Of Subprime was going on as well in Bullhead City AZ or you could have attended both. But as luck would have it, these two gentleman have a video presentation from the conference for our edification:

http://tinyurl.com/2nbezh

JackS said...

Here are some more videos from the enlightening conference:

http://tinyurl.com/39ssls

Anonymous said...

Roger,

This is not really on topic, but you mentioned a couple days ago that you use Kaupthing to invest in Iceland. Can you tell me what institution you use in New Zealand?

Thanks

Roger Nusbaum said...

the only NZ exposure i have ever had was New Zealand Telecom (NZT) which trades on the NYSE but I sold that ages ago.

Tom K said...

Roger, great summary of many of the concepts you blog on regularly.

Was there any discussion about what the acceptance of "indexing" means to the big brokerage houses? It feels like we're moving into an era of strategic asset allocation via indexing (with hedging strategies at the margins) vs. the old school emphasis on equity selection.

Btw, I just posted my weekly update: http://www.regimenia.com/

It seems as though year-end seasonality is at battle with fundamentals that are signaling a slow down.

Roger Nusbaum said...

Goldman was the only brokerage firm with a presence (if there were others they were very low profile, anyway).

The focus was ginourmous pools of capital and there was not much focus on retail applications.

To answer your question i would say that in this part of the business it is a given that there is a certain amount of indexing along with all the other things touched on by Swensen or, back when he was in the spotlight, Jack Meyer.

Anonymous said...

We've been laughing at you here Heckler for six months at least.

aagold said...

Roger,

I'm a regular reader of your blog and I watch your video each week. I've got an overall question for you that doesn't have much to do with this week's video, but it seems like as good a time as any to ask my question. You've stated many times that your goal is to "smooth out the ride" for your clients. I take that to mean that your goal is to get returns about equal to the overall market, but with less volatility.

So why is "smoothing out the ride" your primary goal? Let's assume for the moment that your top-down asset allocation skill gives your portfolio a sharpe ratio (excess return / volatility) greater than that of the overall market. Why not use this skill to increase returns rather than decrease volatility? For example, you could give your clients a portfolio with returns that exceed the overall market, but with a volatility equal to that of the market.

Thanks,
Adam

Anonymous said...

Roger,

I've always embraced the idea of portable alpha (or core & edge,) but at 90/10 rather than 80/20. Was there any rationale at the conference for that particular ratio or is it simply a matter of individual comfort with return and volatility?

Thanks.

Roger Nusbaum said...

aagold, there are two things going on here. one is that i try to manage to clients' potential emotions and the other is that I believe we are late in the cycle. if we are late in the cycle i believe it makes sense to reduce volatility. early in a new cycle might be a different story depending on the client.

anon 6:48, there was no real discussion that I heard about how much 80/20 versus 90/10 or whatever.

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