Wikinvest Wire

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

By Request

Over the weekend T asked for my take on the iShares foreign dividend fund IDV and the First Trust Global Dividend ETF (FGD). In this post I look at IDV and I think I am going to do a write up for TheStreet.com on FGD.

The chart compares IDV to similar funds from PowerShares (PID) and WisdomTree (DTH).

IDV has lagged substantially since inception. The lag, I believe is attributable to a couple of things. It has the heaviest weighting to financials at 41.74% compared to 38.53% for PID and 40.76% for DTH. The difference may not seem to be that much but PID has 10.41% in the big Canadian banks which, luckily for me, has been a good place to have financial exposure during the crunch. The differentiator for DTH has been its 11.56% in energy compared to just 2.09% in energy for IDV.

At some point the financials will obviously provide leadership and at that time (whenever that comes) IDV will probably lead the way up. Some might want to game that sort of thing but that is not my type of trade.

From a diversification standpoint I think IDV is the worst of the three but between PID and DTH I am not sure which is better. DTH excludes Canada as a function of methodology while PID has 20.56% in Canada (according to ETFconnect).

Depending on how PID might be used in a portfolio someone might end up with too much Canada. I have owned one of the banks across the board for quite a while now and have had more exposure in the past (reduced it earlier this year) for some clients. You may have heard they lowered their overnight rate yesterday, and the loonie has given back some of its recent gains. The greenback being too weak is problematic for them and while I have no plans to sell the one bank I would not want too large of a position right now. Also if oil has its usual winter swoon (started a little early this year?) that too could work against Canada and for now I have been trying to reduce volatility for clients.

Trying to look forward for DTH you could take the above paragraph and replace Canada with Great Britain and the 27.88% it has in DTH. Fears of a slow down are gaining traction and so too much GB could also be the wrong place to be. I have a couple of UK stocks as across the board holdings including a bank and some clients own a two year piece of sovereign debt as well.

There have been calls for the pound to generally weaken but I do not think it will weaken against the dollar as a standout unless the dollar surprises everyone and rallies against everything in 2008 which is a possibility. Do not take that as a fundamental opinion but just my being ready for the dollar to rally at exactly the time it shouldn't.

All of the above should illustrate the problems potentially faced with broad-based funds--I do view them as broad-based. I do own PID for a couple of accounts where as a function of circumstance it makes sense but the types of overweights and underweights described above to need to be accounted for, IMO, if they are going to be used.

10 comments:

Tom said...

I think we are safe to expect a well defined rally in the dollar orchestrated by the Fed because of the political realities of an election year. I also believe it will not last for very long, and will not have a net positive effect on the long term dollar decline, which will be with us for the foreseeable future. Just MHO.

Also, I like the fact that these ETFs are available, and will keep them in mind for future consideration, as you so very well point out.

Thanks for your continued excellent commentary and observations, sharing of ideas, etc.

Tom C.

JackS said...

"Also if oil has its usual winter swoon (started a little early this year?)"
I thought that the swoon started late this year. It usually starts just after Labor Day.

Tom.
How is the Fed going to orchestrate a dollar rally when everyone thinks they are going to lower, not raise the funds rate on Dec. 11th? Do you believe they will lower the rate this month and then raise the rate a few times next year?

JackS said...

OT. Here is another "the sky is falling" article about the market:

http://tinyurl.com/ys4jyx

Roger Nusbaum said...

thanks TomC. One question for your thesis about the Fed (JackS make a great point too), does the Fed or Treasury have the quantity of reserves needed to move the market? If not would they also have to jawbone? If so does their word carry enough market moving weight to last?

T said...

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Bears are being lead to the slaughterhouse today.

JoeRT

Anonymous said...

Econ prof always said something to the effect that currencies seek their own level, like water. Intervention in the "free mkt"/ummm is merely a blip.

JackS said...

And now some news from London concerning their possible rate cut and their housing prices:

http://tinyurl.com/25kqp7

Anonymous said...

Tom C.:
David Merkel discussed a scenario for a dollar rally, explaining the conditions and predicting the same result you anticipate. If you are interested, go to the Aleph Blog for more info. Roger, a very informative post. Thanks for continuing your blog.

Sam

INO.com said...

Wow FGC is fairly new, but looking good.

Uptrend

FIRST TRUST EX DJGSD ETF (AMEX:FGD)
Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing some near term weakness. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term uptrend Uptrend with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, FGD scored +70 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10 Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour MA
+15 3 Day High on Monday
+20 Last Price Above 20 Day MA
+25 3 Week High, Week Ending Dec 15
-30 No 3 Month High/Low

+70 Total Score


Happy holiday everyone,

Lindsay at http://club.ino.com/trading/

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