Wikinvest Wire

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Sunday Morning Coffee



















I stumbled across this link via Seeking Alpha about David Swensen with a specific spelling out of his allocation for the endowment and also a proposed allocation for retail investors that would presumably allow do-it-yourselfers to get close.

The Yale endowment as follows;

Real Assets 27%
Absolute Return 25%
Private Equity 17%
Foreign Equity 15%
Domestic Equity 12%
Fixed Income 4%

The Retail Mix;

Domestic Equity 30%
Foreign Developed Equity 15%
Emerging Market 5%
Real Estate 20%
Short Term Treasuries 15%
TIPS 15%

Before I go on I can't vouch for the numbers in the article. It looks like the endowment numbers add up to 100 and every other article I can recall about the Yale endowment the allocation adds up to more than 100 (meaning the fund is leveraged) but whatever.

I'm not too focused on the exact numbers so much as the concept as a means to try to learn. All of the categories in the Yale Endowment are accessible in retail products. Real assets obviously can include any or all of the commodity products (all those ETFs and ETN) that exist.

There are plenty of absolute return open end funds some better than others. If you do a search you'll fund articles talking about the various long/short funds that have done poorly during recent market panics but there are some that have done very well and do add value in this context.

Private equity is a little tricky. The ETFs do not cut it. The holdings all blend together in such a way that the correlations of those ETFs is pretty high to the S&P 500, much higher than the components of the funds. There are various pools of capital that are listed on the exchanges that create the effect. Obviously anyone interested in this area needs to decide for themselves whether the space makes sense for them and then whether any of the choices are suitable but the space is accessible with choices.

The other three categories are what we are all used to investing and so there doesn't need to be top much discussion about them.

There could be reasonable debate as to how appropriate this concept is for do-it-yourselfers but then the point is not that anyone should run out and implement this on Monday but its safe to say that Swensen knows more than all of us and he didn't assemble the portfolio to look that way (from whenever those were the numbers) because he thought it was a bad idea.

Maybe this will draw out some discussion from readers about what they think of Swensen's idea.

The picture is from some ruins past the Enchantment Resort in Sedona that I think are about 1000 years old.

13 comments:

Paul said...

Roger,

The "retail" mix is from Swensen's investment book for normal people _Unconventional_Success_ where he argues individual investors can't replicate an endowment style portfolio because of costs and no access to the best managers.

Swensen is also the BoD of TIAA-Cref so he has access to the TIAA-Cref Real Estate Account which is a direct investment in comparatively low cost real estate company that isn't leveraged up like a REIT. The TIAA RE Acct is lot less volatile than a REIT so it uses the NCREIF index as its tracking index instead of the NAREIT index.

If you use the "Real Estate" asset class for "Real Return" assets the "retail" AA is a lot more interesting. Then it makes sense to put timber, precious metals, commodities, and oil & gas in there as well as real estate.

Roy said...

The biggest challenge for private investors is the "absolute return" exposure, because the OEF products (Merger, Nakoma, etc.) can throw off a lot of short term capital gains, thus they don't make a lot of sense in taxable accounts.

Fred said...

Paul Farrell at Marketwatch.com has been following "lazy portfolios" for years. January 12th he had a summary and review of eight of these model portfolios including Swenson's.

You may need to be registered to see the article. The link is attached to my name.

Stephen Drone said...

What I've always found interesting about the "retail" versions of Swenson's funds are the relatively low exposure to international stocks, assuming the real estate portion is supposed to be all domestic.

Mebane Faber said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mebane Faber said...

Since 1985, Yale has outperformed the recommended allocation from his book by about 5% per annum. I find it strange that he doesn't advocate commodities, which increases the historical risk adjusted returns.

Here is a post that examines the holdings of the endowments without the alternatives:

http://tinyurl.com/3yabj7

http://tinyurl.com/2mmfmw

Anonymous said...

Here is a good Associated Press article dealing with the Société Générale's financial debacle in France last week: It makes for interesting reading. http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080127/business/france_bank_fraud

Willy

Anonymous said...

Year-to-date, the Dow is now down -7.9%, the S&P 500 -9.4%, Nasdaq -12.3%, and the Russell 2000 -10.1%.

Anonymous said...

We kicked this around a good deal at Mebane's site in this post:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/36694-an-endowment-portfolio-from-publicly-traded-vehicles

We focussed on publicly traded alternatives to Yale's "real" holdings, not the retail investor version.

MarkM

Roger Nusbaum said...

thanks Mark, there was a lot there.

the link was truncated, anyone interested can click here

Mitch said...

I read both Swensen books. Started managing my own money this way and soon wanted to learn what others were doing with their asset allocation.

I'm a software guy, so I built a website with free tools that build, share, manage, and rebalance an ETF portfolio. I'd like to build a community of people who show one another how they're doing asset allocations, but want feedback from anyone who is interested in helping out. Please check this out:

www.marketriders.com

Mitch

Registered Investment Advisor said...

Great piece and great discussions. You may want to check this out as well - "How Harvard and Yale endowment invest for bad times?"

http://investmentscientist.com/2008/10/15/david-swensens-public-equity-investments-in-yale-endowment-portfolio/

Registered Investment Advisor said...

Sorry, forgot to hyper-link.

How Harvard and Yale endowment portfolios invest in bad times?

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