Michael Thompson from Thomson Financial was on CNBC for what seemed like a very peculiar interview. Maybe I heard wrong or am being unfair but he appeared to be literally whining about the current state of the market, how long it will take for things to turn around and it seemed to go on throughout the entire interview.
Thompson was very bullish very late and candidly I can't recall anything he has ever said opinion-wise (as opposed to giving data from analysts they survey which has some utility) having much value or being right very often. If you know something different please leave a comment.
It is possible this is just some sort of show because he is often strangely upbeat, now today he was whiny. Maybe he really feels the emotions he displays. Whatever the reality (a show or the real thing) I don't think it is anyway for an analyst to act and potentially elicits an emotional response on the part of some investors which does a true disservice.
I have no idea what his background and experience is (presuming it is pretty good) but just as leaves fall of the trees in autumn, bull markets give way to bears at some point.
Hopefully you can see the forest for this sort of tree and know to discount the credibility of an emotional response from someone who is supposed to be a professional.
Wikinvest Wire
13 comments:
Reminiscent of rosy reports by BS (and others) regarding their solvency, just prior to their collapse. This was a popular occurrence before the tech crash. Picture Kevin Bacon screaming, "All is well" at the panicking hordes during the closing moments of Animal House. The next thing you know a pirate is driving off in someone else's convertible with an underwear-clad cheerleader.
Broadcasters are in the business of contributing to the corporate bottom line via advertising sales. They sell advertising to big corporations. Giving a rip about whether you and I get skinned and hung out to dry does not enter into today's broadcaster menu of concerns. At the top of the list is today's share price.
Time to go find my sword and eye patch...
I'm not sure that was Michael Thompson (video of the interview is up on the CNBC site, btw) - looked more like Irwin Mainway, lol!
the Dan Akroyd character?
If I were to believe Zillow.com the houses in my neighborhood are off 20 to 25% from the peak (FL).
Case Shiller if memory serves correctly has tampa and miami at 18 to 19% off the peak based on January data.
I do not know how recent zillow data is but these seem relatively close to me. Housing seems to continue falling. I expect to see a lot more whining and complaining and blaming to be done.
One comment I read I know I have posted here is that this will turn out to be a slow motion train wreck. I am beginning to see the accuracy and clarity of whoever made that statement.
I would like to also point out the trillion dollar problem has gone from a crazy, outlandish projection to an acceptable estimate by many for the problems we face.
It continues to look like we are turning Japanese, but this time a bunch of other countries will be following down the same path.
On a positive note while housing is horrible here from what I have read the housing bubble in the US on average never got as bad as it did in Japan. So maybe we end up with a Japan lite? I do not know, but I still think this will be worse than your average recession. I am also sure there will be strong rallies along the way which will make my comments look stupid as well, but I would not bet the farm on those rallies.
SEG
Roger, I mis-typed - Nathan Thurm is the SNL character that came to mind when I watched that!
SEG - Zillow's got our house off 14% (San Jose), but there hasn't been a comp since 10/7/07 and that house was off 7% - about right, based on its condition, IMO. We used Zillow to buy this house, but at the time there were 6-8 recent comps.
Roy,
I do not trust Zillow for my house or any one specific house. I do trust zillow averages for a neighborhood, which takes more work to evaluate. The comp $/sqft seems ok.
My house IMO use to be 5 to 10% under priced and now it seems 10% over priced on zillow. Remember it is a zestimate as they say.
seg
Hussman is a must read this week IMO.
Third inning
I can definitely see the possibility of an extremely serious recession but still see evidence there are very large quantities of eurodollars stashed in other countries that must eventually be repatriated so I continue to think the main probability remains a mucky mush, a bear that is relatively 'normal' in depth but with poorly defined edges, maybe a 'W' or 'WW' (double-dubya) in honor of the dude from Crawford or, if we are somewhat less fortunate, an 'L'
Ordinarily I'd make a stronger distinction between the economy and the equity or debt markets but financial institutions play such a central role in the credit-based economy we are becoming (or have become) I'm not sure how realistic that is any more.
From an article on CNNMoney - The best investment in 10 years: Get in while you can.
They have a best-of-class ETF portfolio. I was wondering what you thought?
These five ETFs stand out for their rock-bottom fees and strong records in tracking broad-market indexes. You can put together a simple yet fully diversified portfolio just by spreading your money among all five.
Unfortunatley I can't copy-paste their table.
Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) - 30%
Vanguard REIT (VNQ) - 10%
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-U.S. (VEU) - 20%
Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND) - 30%
iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP) - 10%
no small cap (effect), REITs seemed to have a high correlation to financials when things hit the fan, no emerging markets (effect), no commodities, no meaningful foreign fixed income.
Yeah, that's the usual generic ETF portfolio.
Small caps are, what, 1.5% of the total portfolio. Emerging markets are even less than that.
Interesting. I checked out the article.
The "Fix your mix" calculator thing is a redux of an article they did months ago (some time last year, I think) on setting up portfolios for people in different "life places."
For Roy (with house in SJ)
I've seen wild discrepancies between the different sectors in greater San Jose. Los Gatos/Saratoga is holding firm, while some of east SJ is bid-free.
Follow the tech employment. If that falters, there could be something of a rush of foreclosures. (I grew up in SJ area and am stunned by the prices (still) attached to some very unspectacular ranch tract homes built in the early '60s.) The potential for a meaningful correction (25%) is very high, IMO.
R in NY
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