Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
4 comments:
Regarding the Bear Market Theme, the SP500 from Oct 2007 to now looks eerily similar to the SP500 from Jul 1990 to Jan 1991. Strange (Bush, Iraq, Finacials, Oil)! Hmm; I wonder if the corrolation will continue!
CA
CA: Only one difference - we didn't begin the war against Iraq until January 16, 1991 and our markets started to recover. Solution? Begin a "war of choice" against Iran.....
This economy and market still feels as mushy to me as it did last year and I'm still thinking a double dubya (WW): Seesaw muddle through, not super deep necessarily (although I'm looking for another down-leg here) but with poorly defined edges.
Regardless agree with what I see as the sense underlying your comments that it is a mistake to couple optimism with a demand for pollyannish commentary because that commentary can transform the past into something far better than it was thus making current circumstance seem truly awful by comparison.
If you haven't made his acquaintance I recommend one of my favorite philosophers, the longshoreman Eric Hoffer: a working man who never bothered with higher education, never left the docks, never wasted time resenting anything and could cut through fat to the bone faster than anyone I've ever read.
From his (1973) Reflections on the Human Condition:
"Our achievements speak for themselves. What we have to keep track of are our failures, discouragements, and doubts. We tend to forget the past difficulties, the many false starts, and the painful groping. We see our past achievements as the end result of a clean forward thrust, and our present difficulties as signs of decline and decay."
PS: Agreed on the, football (ahem, soccer) announcers: even more fun is listening to someone from the British Isles (Irish are as fun as Scots) on one channel and one of the latin channels for really incomprehensible commentary until the score which you can't miss, e.g., http://www.boastingrights.com/goooal.wav
Hello Roger:
I am new to your blog, and I think you are providing a very powerful service for which I thank you (I wish I discovered it sooner). I went back through a bunch of previous posts, and see that you have been convinced we are in a bear market for equities. This being the case, I wonder if you ever divulge what % you are long equities overall? (or perhaps you are net neutral or short) Anyway , I plan to make this a regular read, and who knows , perhaps I can have something to occasionally contribute as well....
Thanks, JY
Post a Comment