Last week I disclosed going back into China with a small purchase for most, but not all, clients. Relative to a day or three the timing was poor. The big macro is that at down about 60% from the peak there is a lot of bad news priced in.
Today the Shanghai Composite was up 7.63%. Just as two days was not enough time to be wrong, one week is not enough time to be right. I do not know if a bottom is in or not but I would expect the real and ultimate bottom to be a little quieter than a 7% rally a day or two after "bottoming."
It is very human to have a reaction to appearing to be very right or very wrong soon after making a trade but if you buy something with a long time horizon the first week means nothing (assuming no catastrophe or no buy out).
Iceland won its quarterfinal match against Poland in team handball earlier today, next up is Spain.
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
6 comments:
Very human indeed. Even if you have been investing for years and years, it's easy to fall prey to:
1) self loathing because a stock that go down 10% one hour after YOU purchase.
1a) ditto for a stock that turns around and goes up 10% one hour after YOU sell or get stopped out.
2) Self congrats because a stock goes up 10% one hour after YOU purchase.
2b) ditto because a stocks drops 10% one hour after YOU sell.
It often feels like the pro's and talking heads are alway into and out of the right sector/stock at just the right time.
However, follow some their newsletters/track record and most often that is far from reality.
now that you mention there have been a lot of people on TV who bought on July 15.
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/20/jim-rogers-interview/
hope this makes you feel better.
thanks for the link. i read part one yesterday(?).
I got the kids back into China in mid-July. There just comes a point, admittedly different for everyone, where the risk of being out, outweighs the risk of being in. Hopefully it will offset the GE that I put them into, in January - lol
Um, this is off topic but...
don't the insurance companies
have a boat load of mortgage
backed securies in their portfolios? I know about AIG but
I haven't read much about others...am I missing something...
probably. I had a large investment in a guaranteed stated return fund awhile back with Cigna
(in a 401K)...until I read what it
was invested in....
FWIW
thanks for the intelligent and
clever blog Roger.
Post a Comment