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11 comments:
http://tinyurl.com/3k8zo8
thanks as always
Dear Roger ... the petpto bismol was not appropriate for this week's action...
Xanax would have been a better prescription!! ;)
What a week indeed !! Wow!!
http://tinyurl.com/3sc4yy
speaking of pricing errors...
are the above pricing errors
or what?
I bought a little VT and
it's bid was 46 when I got it
it was 49...yikes...very
low volume...please help
thanks
also, I opened up a Roth
for my 23 year old son
with $2500...am I better
to buy a FIDO or Vanguard
fund or 2/3 stocks...
any ideas anyone?
thanks for any help
but the way, my college
son says everyone getting
an MBA is planning to take
a few extra courses to
get updated:-)
Someone said that Marc Farber
said the bear will be over
when apple, rimm, and amazon
are taken to the woodshed...
but I can't find it on the internet.
90% cash and lots of 6 & 5% CDs
paying monthly.
With Bush on tv claiming credit for fixing the credit markets single handed and the elections coming up, a crash on Monday looks unlikely and I'd be surprised if there was one. Last week ended about level on everything, I don't think we'll be seeing that anywhere again.
Roger,
Appreciated your video. We're beyond normal, but who's to say whether in the NEXT bear market, we'll look back on this time and consider the perplexicity (new word...) absolutely normal and in fact signaling a (bottom/intermediate top/loop-de-loop (another new term for our technical friends to use).
But in all seriousness, I am deathly concerned for the dollar. If Paulson's $700B revolver goes through, it is nothing short of a "reinflation engine".
False confidence may spur short-term demand, which could start up the commodities again, right as the dollar starts its swan dive. $4/gal may seem like "old times" by the end of the year.
That, or this will get tied up in Congress and both candidates will use it as the ass's jaw to attack the status quo. But that would be the better outcome, imho.
In fact, the law of unintended consequences seems to be approaching at the horizon, and we're headed there at light-speed.
Just one question: will you stick to your discipline if in fact we do pop the 200DMA on the open? Do you really trust this? Particularly if some downward pressure is merely "made illegal"?
Silly me. I thought the function of the NYSE was to provide orderly markets! Apparently only when it is in there interest? ( Where's Putin when you need him?) So the crisis is solved? Fed chief took the worthless mortgages and moved them from one pocket to another! Oh well experience counts in this election.
Just kind of a time to freak out, hey?
Wakko times, no way to guess what'll be going on a year from now, hey?
I was mellower and not impatient before I finally got my first computer in 1999, (early). I was mellower and not scared silly before I got my portfolio two years ago.
Can solar and wind possibly augument, or even take over Oil?
We need another Tesla.
Thank you, Roger, for your thoughts and taking the time to post on this blog.
Melissa
this just out Wachovia and
Goldman Sacs merged...
to be called Wachogoldsacs.
So the bear is over?
Hi Roger,
My family and I are currently in the market for a RIA for our investment portfolio. I have been an avid reader of yours for quite some time and realize that due to compliance issues that you may not be able to get into great detail on your blog.
I believe your strategy is fundamentally driven based on a top down sector approach, coupled with thematic moves and 200DMA for defensive or more offensive moves, etc...
My assessment is that for most investors to be successful in the future that their strategy will have to incorporate a number of pies, such as geography (regional/country specific), sector pies, market cap pies, style pies, asset class pies, etc.
Then, if you're say much higher than expected in technology when looking at the sector pie, then use the short technology ETF. If you are low on small cap exposure overall then maybe add a little bit of S&P600 or Russell 2k.
I also believe that not enough investors think enough about planning. With each new high, why not buy insurance so when the market goes down, you get compensated from the insurance and the next decision is whether to double down and start using inverse ETFs to take advantage of the downward momentum of which I believe that you do with the 200% inverse product SDS. The same can be done at market tops, perhaps define using VIX principles as it bounced around for a long time in 2007 near 10 ... a good sign of a top). Not a secret here to be positive when everyone
is in negative territory. But about being a bit better than everyone by simply minimizing pain and suffering which should also minimize the chance of
getting fired by a client.
I would appreciate your thoughts and/or further comments into your opinion of such a strategy?
anon 7:00, i'm not following where your looking for an RIA ties in with laying out a strategy.
any method has pluses and minuses. what you spell out is plausible of course, narrowly hedging parts of the portfolio as i think you are describing might create more trades and complexity than i might prefer and obviously there will be new highs made only to go higher.
i am less confident with "market tops" than you appear to be.
Roger,
Can you please share your perspective on active versus passive investing. The mainstream media and academic research indicates that the long term odds that active portfolio managers will outperform the indices is quite slim. How do you overcome this concern with prospective clients?
:Here are some "facts and figures" regarding the probability of index funds outperforming managed funds:
"Searching through a list of 234 domestic equity funds that have survived for 20 years, only 31 did better than the Vanguard 500 Index. That means the odds are really, really poor that any of us will do better than a low-cost broad index fund." Scott Burns, syndicated columnist.
"Only about one out of every four equity funds outperforms the stock market. That's why I'm a firm believer in the power of indexing." Charles Schwab
"Just 19% of United States mutual funds that have existed since mid-1980 were able to beat the S&P 500 through May of this year." Mark Hulbert in The NY Times July, 2, 2006
"Of the 355 equity funds in 1970, fully 233 of those funds have gone out of business. Only 24 outpaced the market by more than 1% a year. These are terrible odds." Jack Bogle 2007
Since 1976 the Vanguard index funds have produced a compund annual return of 12%--better than three-quarters of its pear group." Jonathan Davis, London Spectator (2007).
"With the market beating 91% of surviving managers since the beginning of 1982, it looks pretty efficient to me." Bill Miller, portfolio manager
"The S&P benchmarks outperformed their active peer funds in all nine Morningstar style boxes over the past ten years." Gus Sauter (1-25-05)
"A long-term investor (10-20 years) had a 10.59% to 24.71% chance of selecting an actively managed fund that outperformed the index fund." (Journal of Financial Planning) Link below
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