Word to the wise - don't accept advice or analysis about this crisis from anyone who failed to anticipate it in the first place. The people warning about Depression now (or even talking about it casually on the financial channels) are the same reckless jackasses who told investors that stocks were cheap and “resilient” at the highs.
and
My impression is that investors who abandon properly diversified and carefully planned investments here, with the stock market already down by nearly half, will regret it as the emotionally panicked decision that wrecked their retirement prospects.
21 comments:
I too read that this morning {and each Monday}. Basically, I am reading your stuff and Hussman {he a bit longer than you} to keep me grounded.
Thank you for helping me.
DE
Well, sure, but then whom do you listen to? The guy who called it and now says "20 year depression is coming!"
I saw a problem, but I didn't anticipate a panic, or as someone put it "irrational irrationality" in a play on Greenspan's words.
Amen.
Glad to have exposure to the rally here but will not add more until a trend is established (oh but those longs do look good now don't they).
Or do you listen to the guy who said SPX 800 was a done deal last week :O
I'd say hitting 839 as the low was pretty darn close to the 800 target.
question is, will todays rally hold going into the close?
LOL! I'll tell that to my broker and see if he'll fill me at 800 next time we hit 839 :)
The question you pose is valid. I like to use the IBD rule of thumb here. The second day needs to show follow through. Without it, I think we're going to kick around below 10,000 for awhile.
Roger,
you clearly like Hussman - as you reference him with approval occasionaly - do you invest with him ever for clients or yourself? why or why not?
I don't have any of his fund anywhere or for anyone. No real reason why not other than I do not do much with actively managed products; a little, but not much.
http://tinyurl.com/47tnhl
interactive Bear chart
interesting?
thanx for your site Roger:-)
960 resistance...
90% cash
Mish came up with 960 as well (sorry, didn;t click on your chart yet if that is who you linked to).
Roger, someone previously mentioned the 200mda possibly needing to be revised as an indicator because this bear isn't considered 'normal'. I suppose it depends on your attitude to risk but we might have just entered a massive feel-good rally today and will fall just short of the 200mda and then again puke down to retest the lows in '09.
Another poster gave a tiny link to compare previous bears - from what I see there it looks as though the worst bears where when the US used the gold standard.
WOW, now that's what I call a rally
Nice rally today. I guess this means the Recession/Depression is over. It certainly sounds that way after watching CNBC. hah!
Anyone have ideas on how I can find a correlation value between the DJIA and the S&P 500?
"We're letting the nuts run the insane asylum." LOL
Jack Bogle quote on Market Watch
Oct. 10th article
Is tomorrow turn-a-round
tuesday?
go market go, just made back all my losses for the year and hit a new all time high. I gambled and it paid off big time today.
I too made a gamble and bought a few things late on Friday. In retrospect, with the size of the selloff Friday and the likelihood that the meetings over the weekend would produce results, I wish I'd bought a lot more.
I also sold a few stocks late today that had gone up alot. I was surprised though when the rally picked up steam at the close. I guess that means tomorrow might be ok too.
Jim
I am not in the depression camp and I am not a perma bear but I do think we will see lower lows within in a year on the S&P. That said I am 80+% invested for this rally. I added 30% today as fast as I could. I wish I knew how long it will last.
Marc Faber seems to bearish to me right now. I could say the same for some others. The fact that some are to bearish does not mean we have seen the bottom and will only go higher from hear. Enjoy this rally I expect it to feel real good before it is over.
seg
I heard Marc Faber say recently that he thought stocks were extremely oversold and to expect a rally possibly lasting a few months before economic reality sets in.
He is one of the few people with credibility left because he drew the outlines of how things are playing out now long before it happened.
Just read Mauldin's newest...
still trying to take it all in.
What say you Roger?
I know you don't/can't recommend
stocks but do you think a royalty
trust example, something like
HGT or PBT would be a good take in
these times of searching for a
decent dividend.
thanks
anon 3:14
Faber also said the USA would go bankrupt. He seems to bearish to me along with others. I agree with him a rally is due. Almost everyone agrees a rally is due.
seg
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