Wikinvest Wire

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Random Thoughts

Perhaps the market will confound people and all of sudden the 6% days will be behind us now.

ProShares launched a bunch of new funds including double short yen (YCS), double short euro (EUO), double short broad commodities (CMD), double short crude oil (SCO), double long yen (YCL), double long euro (ULE), double long broad commodities (UCD) and double long crude oil (UCO).

I imagine they will be very popular.

My most recent TSCM article ran on Tuesday. It was about an interesting long short OEF called Dover Long Short Sector Fund (DLSAX). It is managed by Doug Cliggot and has done very well. I do not own it anywhere but that may change.

Funny story; I got back from getting coffee early on Tuesday morning (still in Maui then but back in Hilo now) turned the rental car off and the horn started honking at different volume levels. It was about 7:15 AM, we stayed in the middle of a neighborhood and couldn't get the car to stop going berserk. Finally I figured that leaving the key in the ignition was the answer. The rental company brought another car out to us.

I'll try to post more later.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

No doubt the car was the ubiquitous Chrysler Sebring. Convertible no less.

Anonymous said...

is there an etf that tracks the inverse of GLD?

Bill B said...

Is GLD not shortable?

mozwo said...

Is there a way to get information on all new ETF/ETN that are launched (RSS/ Gator)?

Anonymous said...

Roger. From Yahoo! Finance, DLSAX is amazingly price steady throughout 2008 except for a breath taking 1 day spike down on 2/20/08 (-13% if my math and the Yahoo! data are correct); 2/19/08 was $10.57 per share, 2/20/08 was $9.15, and 2/21/08 was $10.58. Are you aware of any reason for this 1 day event? Thanks, JCarr

Anonymous said...

I may add a few double shorts here to stabilize my retirement portfolio which is still down 40% ytd and back to 1997 levels.

Matthew said...

I think these Proshares leveraged commodity and gold ETFs are probably going to take assets from the Powershares DB ETN alternatives pretty quickly. I know I am thinking of switching to reduce credit risk.

7:10 I don't know why you would want to short gold in this inflationary environment but here's the ammo:

DB Gold Short ETN (NYSE: DGZ)
DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE: DZZ)

Mozwo, I know that indexuniverse.com has an RSS feed, but it would probably give you more than just ETF launches.

Roger Nusbaum said...

it was an American car.

I'm not aware of an all encompassing new product feed but Index Universe and ETF Trends covers it quite thoroughly.

Every so often OEF have a blip in pricing, often just an error either with the NAV calculation or reported incorrectly to the services. I don't view that as having any bearing on the merits of the fund.

Anonymous said...

roger, I was looking through the carnage and saw that MIC collapsed. Why? What does this teach us about this class of absolute return?

Sam

RW said...

MIC was downgraded by several analysts this month, last week most recently, it seems likely the dividend will be cut and, with the recession deepening, short to intermediate earnings prospects appear poor for the industrial group(s) it represents. Hard to think of this as an absolute return play, seems pretty cyclical.

It was up very big today -- huge actually (37.5%) -- but a lot of other stocks got a big lift today too (including some real trash) and there is no compelling reason to believe this is more than a short to intermediate panic up move even in the case of companies like MIC that could benefit from increased infrastructure spending during an Obama presidency (assuming that spending proceeds as planned).

I am in for a seasonality trade on several individual issues as well as an index -- can't believe I bought some F too (almost let out a giggle when I pulled the trigger on that one) -- and might stay longer if this move shows real legs but will just keep raising stops regardless under the assumption this is a bull trap.

BIgBeluga said...

GLD is shortable.

All of the new PowerShares require filing a K-1, and the ETNs do not. The ETNs also have the advantage over GLD of being taxed at the regular long-term capital gains rate (15%, going up to 20%) vice the rate for collectables that applies to GLD (28%).

In this environment, I can certainly see the argument for the ETFs to take the credit risk off of the table.

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