I shuddered a little bit when Bernanke said that on 60 Minutes last night. I realize the Fed has been printing money to try to fix this but there was something about hearing him say it...did you get a similar feeling?
I was struck by a couple of things from the interview. He recycled a couple of nuggets like the burning house analogy and he said again how angry the AIG situation made him. He said this before of course but that just seems like an odd thing for the situation; anger. I'd rather the Fed Chairman was a robot in terms of emotion.
The world is microscopically dissecting everything he says and so the points I make above probably mean nothing but still...
That none of the banks will fail is good for main street of course but he seems to have no allegiance to stock prices of any of the banks, not that he should. A winding down of a financial institution as appears to be happening with AIG will probably leave other stocks at zero or taken over close to zero like Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual.
"Green chutes" notwithstanding I did not get the feeling that this will be over soon. Not over soon does not have to mean everything gets worse although it seems like unemployment will indeed get worse. Between here and the resolution there will be ups and downs in the market (don't laugh, I mean the potential for big moves in both directions that make navigation difficult and weighs emotionally on people) and the eventual real turn around will be met with disbelief.
What did you think about Bernanke last night?
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
24 comments:
I have never been a fan of Bernanke. To me he does not exude confidence. I hope he is not the Fed chairman for much longer. Same for out Treasury Secretary.
Geitner will probably be around for a little while especially since they are having so much trouble filling the rest of the spots at treasury.
I thought it was pretty interesting...saying this would be done by 2010 or so...well what else could he say? The "bearded one" is printing money like a madman - the issue will be to buy back those dollars before inflation rips through...that is where we will see if big ben is good - clearly extremely smart...as you can tell I'm still trying to figure it all out hahaha. FYI Roger - ""Barclays notes press comment regarding the potential disposal of iShares and confirms that it has held discussions with a number of potentially interested parties as part of its practice of regularly reviewing the group's portfolio of businesses," Barclays said Monday. "No decision regarding the disposal of any business has been taken by the board of Barclays."
interesting; Barclays and iShares.
I thought Ben sounded pretty competent. Adios
Huh. Roubini calls this a "dead cat bounce" and advises to sell. Man he must be popular at parties.
We clearly have under-qualified people running a command economy. I've studied several of Bernanke's papers (including his oil shock paper, which I continue to be perplexed that we've forgotten the record shock our economy incurred last summer and are pretending it's all sub-prime causation) and he's clearly theoretical without any practical or useful experience.
Academic perspective is useful when balanced with pragmatic executive experience, but absent the latter, leads to "learning on the job" at best. While it's consistent with our new President and his administration, all individuals who don't even possess the experience of supervising the night shift at the local Dairy Queen, it's going to erode our economy until the poseurs are removed.
When you're tired of decline and destruction of your personal wealth, quit voting for fat-cats and inexperienced academics.
Yeah that quote really shocked me too. I mean we all know that's what they're doing but I'd never expect the Fed Chief to be so blunt about it.
Roger,
Real opinion, do YOU think the market has bottomed out and we are going to bounce here into a Bull market or at least get another 10% bounce on this rally??
I've stated my opinion many times. Big rally followed another run down. If that turns out to be right I can't say whether a run down means SPX @ 666 or some other number, I don't know and the bottom tick is not a priority.
At any moment it is either better to be defensive or fully invested. That is the priority.
Roger,
You must have mistyped. Did you take both sides?? Is it better to be defensive now and keep a lot in cash or in YOUR opinion is it time to get invested more in the market?? You think this bounce is like a Dead Cat bounce???
Thanks!
After reading the post and the comments today I get a sense of over all nervousness among the group, akin to endorphines are starting to rise in anticipation of taking action.
In regard to the comments about our current leadership. Are we not writing a new chapter in the Economic books as we sail through these unchartered waters? Comments and actions by them may be incorrect from my viewpoint and understanding, but I certainly do not have their understanding of the global conditions. When I think about each person I also think of them in context of the team of Obama advisor's including Buffet and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.
I to get very pi-- off and have stated my thoughts on accountability and transparency in comment sections of NYT, Yahoo, emails to elected representatives with CC: to neighbors and friends asking them to read, decide and act accordingly. I hope the level of pubic involvement continues.
Roger and Group, thanks for being here - reading this blog is always a pleasure and quite often a mystery to a 2nd or 3rd stringer.
I admit to moments of wondering how I could totally cash out and move to Tasmania. Cheers - Richard
When you look at Bernanke, Geithner, virtually all of Bush's appointees, the CEO's and BOD of many large corporations, there is is a very high level of incompetence.
Incompetence appears to be more ingrained in American society, especially in leadership positions.
I was somewhat shocked by his fiat money honesty and found him to seem to be quite likable as a person if not his policies. Can't say the same for former Treasury sec. Paulson who fails on both counts. Maybe it was his Daddy Warbucks look, LOL. Most likely his GS connection though.
And I agree with you that his market recovery timetable looks to be a tad optimistic.
Anyway, two OT subjects for you....
"Barclays shops ETF unit in 'game-changing' move....
Bidders could include Goldman, others looking for foothold in business."
http://tinyurl.com/c9ne6a
Oh, and thank God for March Madness! GO PITT!
This is worth study. It is in effect Bernanke unbound. It is free of the usual hooting monkey nonsense that usually attends a Bernanke presentation.
I personally think this is another head fake. I have been slowly buying or selling into the trends the last few months. Could certainly be wrong, but I do not think this is a new long-term bull that we are seeing.
A main point seldom discussed here or in the media:
the rating agencies were negligent in their performance.
Certianly there cannot be trust in the system if this is not changed.
I hate to say this, but perhaps the government needs to take this over.
The biggest area of incompetance is the SEC. The Madoff affair is one screw up for the books. Seems the SEC was working for wall street, not the individual investor.
I suggest that the government start up the printing presses as a covert operation and print all the money that is needed to pay off the national debt. Nobody would ever know and that would be the end of that.
lol, i made the same joke to my brother a few weeks ago and he reminded that they are already doing that--no longer reporting M-3.
Bernake is angry because the greatest fraud in US history is over.
The transfer of mony for hard working Americans to wall-street via 401Ks and financial advisors like Roger.
Roger's job is to make sure you bet on something, then he gets a cut.
If does not matter which ETF, Stock, Index, Currency, REIT, .. that you bet on...
as long as you make a bet on some "product" offered by wall-street.
Stocks outperform most investments over the long-term, don't they?
Otherwise Roger and other honest fund managers would have a much harder time getting us to make a 'bet'.
Long-term here looks like it could be double figures, but you have advice everywhere saying reduce your equity exposure and increase cash when nearing retirement age.
Even the anti-Christ (hyperbole) Cramer advised everyone to get out last September - if they needed the money within 5 years.
I'm in for 15+ years and re-investing all dividends - what else can you do?
We clearly have under-qualified people running a command economy.
Right now real asset values are deflating. The root of the problem is and has been in housing values. So, on that basis, as I said last summer, the only way out is for us to inflate our way out. To get asset prices to rise about its underlying debt levels which will allow people to sell and pay back their debt at the same time shore up bank balance sheets allowing them to start lending again. The price to reflating is our collective buying power. I'll take that over what we have now.
Post a Comment