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9 comments:
When I first heard about EMA I wondered if they were better. I now view both 200 dma simply as a rule of thumb. EMA is just quicker. If you want quicker why not do to simple 150, 100, 50 or 73 dma? (how dare I put a non round number like 73 in there).
I think people get to hyper about rules of thumb. Roger knows it is simplistic and chooses to use it anyway as a guide post to smooth the ride. It is not magical.
Stock picking/portfolio management is in the art phase now? Wowser! Bet your clients pucker up on that one.
6:02, why the hostility? I'm an active manager. There is nothing new about that comment.
No hostility, just pure amazement that's all. When I think of artists I think of flower arrangers, photographers, interior decorators...not portfolio/money managers. As long as they're cool with that...to each his own. It is possible that the artistic approach with the right artist at the helm is the way to go. Only time will tell.
Sorry if I offended you. I like stopping in here cuz there's always something interesting going on.
Call it whatever you want. If what Buffet and Lynch and Miller and Gross et. all were easy to reproduce everyone would be doing it. It's not easy to produce. 'cuase, IMO, there's an art to it.
Second Anon 6:02...
I've always loved the art/artist analogy and I think its very accurate.
I'm looking at my broker's website they have 98 different technical analysis tools. Add in all the different types of investing in gold, stock, bonds etc. What a person picks and chooses is similar to an artist choosing clay, oil paints, colored pencils or whatever tools they decide upon. If your 73 day moving average on a canvas mural works then great!
If I was so inclined to hire a professional money manager I would much rather prefer an artist who was up front and honest about the markets and what they do.
Roger,
Out of curiosity when you say you are going back in a little bit at a time defensively, what does that mean. Are we talking JNJ, MCD, PG, XLP at a rate of 5-10%. I'am confused on the specifics. Please explain. Stock suggested above are just random samples of defensive holdings and not specifics.
Roger brings up a great point about following him being a bad idea. I'd like to extend that to say following ANYONE is a bad idea. Hopefully you have your plan in place and are executing accordingly. Following someone else's picks, strategies, etc is just a bad idea all around. Do your own homework.
In non-related market news, our foster dog was adopted today. Emotionally tough for us, but the dog went to a great family. Very happy ending.
I hope you can achieve the return on the blog that you desire. I'd miss it. Regarding copying you, I'm not surprised that a portion of the folks that read the blog would be inclined to do so. After all, that's the way the business news networks have raised the public. I doubt that the folks that consistently read you are looking for stock tips, trading strategies, or fixed allocations. You've made it clear man times that you customize the accounts to the clients needs, and follow some rules for disciplines sake to smooth the ride. Re art versus science: The market is in the short term heavily influenced by emotion. The money manager that can read the tells will enhance his clients returns a great deal. That is an art, not a science.
Sam
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